Senior Economist · World Bank

Hernan
Winkler

Development economist specializing in labor markets, poverty and inequality dynamics, and the distributional impacts of technology — with 15+ years at the World Bank translating research into policy impact in Latin America, with experience spanning Europe, Central Asia, and beyond.

Hernan Winkler
Senior Economist & Global Lead on Jobs · World Bank

About

Ph.D., Economics
University of California, Los Angeles
2011
M.A., Economics
University of California, Los Angeles
2008
M.A., Economics
Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina
2004
B.A., Economics
Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Argentina
2002 · 2nd in cohort

I am a development economist with over 15 years at the World Bank, currently serving as Global Lead on Jobs and Senior Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice for Latin America and the Caribbean.

My research focuses on labor markets, poverty and inequality dynamics, and how technology — from the internet to generative AI — reshapes distributional outcomes. I have led or contributed to analytical work spanning 20+ countries, producing policy-relevant research that has informed government dialogue and featured in outlets including CNN en Español, NPR, France 24, Brookings, and the World Economic Forum.

I am ranked in the top 5% of economists worldwide for publications over the last 10 years, according to RePEC/IDEAS aggregate rankings among 73,000+ registered authors. I also serve as Associate Researcher at CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina.

Prior to my current role, I was a Senior Economist at Amazon, where I advised business leaders on pricing decisions using causal inference methods at scale.

Labor Markets Poverty Measurement Generative AI Inequality Technology & Development Latin America & Caribbean Job Quality Migration

Research

18
Brazilian Review of Econometrics, forthcoming. With L. Dinarte, D. Jaume and E. Medina.
17
Journal of Development Economics (2024). With K. Bahia, P. Castells, G. Cruz, T. Masaki, X. Pedros, T. Pfutze and C. Rodriguez-Castelan.
16
Journal of Development Studies (2024). With C. Rodriguez-Castelan and E. Vazquez.
15
IZA Journal of Labor Policy 13.1 (2023). With M. Bussolo, D. Capelle, M. Lokshin, I. Torre.
12
Economic Development and Cultural Change 71.4 (2023). With A. Bandiera, M. Sviatschi, S. Rozo, C. Schmidt-Padilla and L. Dinarte.
11
Journal of Development Studies 58.3 (2022). With M. Viollaz.
10
World Bank Research Observer 36.1 (2021). With D. Garrote Sanchez, N. Gomez Parra, C. Ozden, B. Rijkers and M. Viollaz.
8
Economics of Transition and Institutional Change 27.3 (2019). With E. Vazquez.
4
Kyklos 70.1 (2017). With L. de Mello, E. Tiongson and S. Schotte.
3
Applied Economics Letters 4.16 (2016).
2
Journal of Development Economics 120 (2016). With C. Rodriguez-Castelan, T. Enamorado, L. Lopez-Calva.
GenAI & Technology
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 11328, March 2026. With P. Gmyrek and M. Viollaz.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10863, July 2024. With P. Gmyrek and S. Garganta. Replication package · Interactive dashboard
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8741, 2019. With E. Artuc and L. Christiaensen.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8758, 2019. With S. LoBello and M.L. Sanchez Puerta.
Labor Markets
CEDLAS Working Paper 363, January 2026. Under review. With F. Pinto and Y. Valdivia.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 10794, June 2024. With V. Di Maro, K. Montoya, S. Olivieri and E. Vazquez. Replication package · Green Jobs Database
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9675, 2021. With R. Cueva and X. del Carpio.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8652, 2018. With M. Bussolo and I. Torre.
Social Protection and Jobs Discussion Paper No. 1914, 2019. With R. Holzmann and D. Robalino.
Jobs Group Solutions Note, World Bank, 2017. With E. Ruppert Bulmer and H. Mote.
"European Informality: A Study of Kosovo's Shadow Economy."
Background paper for the Kosovo Jobs Diagnostics, World Bank, 2017. With M. Ajwad and E. Vazquez.
"Productivity growth and convergence in Russia: a dynamic firm-level diagnostic."
Background paper for the Systematic Country Diagnostic of the Russian Federation, 2020. With A. Cusolito.
Inter-American Development Bank, 2006. With L. Gasparini, M. Busso and F. Haimovich.
Poverty & Inequality
"Asymmetric Adaptation to Heat and Energy Poverty."
CAF Working Paper, May 2026. With A. Camacho, L. Gasparini, L. Laguinge and J. Puig.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6199, 2013. With G. Inchauste, S. Olivieri and J. Saavedra.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6414, 2013. With J.P. Azevedo, G. Inchauste, S. Olivieri and J. Saavedra.
Working paper, 2013. With A. Aizer and F. Borrescio-Higa.
World Bank Policy Paper Series on Pakistan PK 12/12, 2012. With G. Inchauste.
Economic Premise, 2012. With J.P. Azevedo, G. Inchauste, S. Olivieri and J. Saavedra.
Annex IV in IMF's Peru 2021 Article IV Consultation. With R. Cueva.
CEDLAS Working Paper No. 34, 2006. With L. Gasparini and F. Haimovich.
CEDLAS Working Paper No. 24, 2005. With F. Haimovich.
6
Country Private Sector Diagnostic, IFC–World Bank, 2023. With J. Salhab and L. Johannes.
5
Jobs Series No. 28, World Bank, 2021. With M. Montenegro.
4
Jobs Series No. 24, World Bank, 2020. With N. Banegas.
3
Jobs Series No. 18, World Bank, 2019. With A. Gonzalez.
1
Directions in Development, World Bank, 2014. With G. Inchauste, J.P. Azevedo, B. Essama-Nssah, S. Olivieri, T. Van Nguyen and J. Saavedra-Chanduvi.

Chapters, sections, and core team contributions to major World Bank flagship reports.

Core Team Member
ECA Economic Update, World Bank, 2017. Core team member.
ECA Economic Update, World Bank, 2016. Analysis of political polarization and jobs.
Book Chapters
Ch. 3 in Building an Equitable Society in Colombia, World Bank, 2021.
Ch. 3 in Critical Connections: Promoting Economic Growth and Resilience in Europe and Central Asia, World Bank, 2018. With S. Tan and T. Yde-Jensen.
Ch. 3 in Risk and Returns: Managing Financial Trade-Offs for Inclusive Growth in Europe and Central Asia, World Bank, 2016.
In Diversified Development: Making the Most of Natural Resources in Eurasia, World Bank, 2014.
Ch. 6 in Golden Aging: Prospects for Healthy, Active, and Prosperous Aging in Europe and Central Asia, World Bank, 2015.
Career

Professional Experience

2023 – Present
World Bank
Global Lead on Jobs & Senior Economist, Poverty and Equity GP – LAC · Washington, DC
  • Lead biannual Regional Poverty and Inequality Updates and Regional Jobs Updates for LAC.
  • Advise senior leadership on the impacts of policies and shocks on poverty and inequality.
  • Co-lead the harmonization and curation of SEDLAC/LABLAC, the largest microdata collection of household and labor force surveys for LAC, supporting analysis across 20+ countries.
  • Lead a research program on generative AI and labor markets, with media engagements on CNN en Español, France 24, and NPR.
  • Manage and mentor a team of economists and data scientists.
2022 – 2023
Amazon
Senior Economist · Arlington, VA
  • Advised business leaders on pricing decisions using large-scale internal data and causal inference methods.
2011 – 2022
World Bank
Senior Economist / Economist / Consultant – Poverty, Jobs, Chief Economist Office (ECA) · Washington, DC
  • Led and contributed to flagship regional reports on the digital economy, aging, and access to finance across Europe & Central Asia and LAC.
  • Produced jobs diagnostics for Jordan, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic.
  • Co-led the IFC Country Private Sector Diagnostic for Peru; provided analytical inputs to the IMF Article IV consultation for Peru.
  • Led research on the labor market effects of technology, trade, and informality, resulting in multiple peer-reviewed publications and policy reports.
2007 – 2011
UCLA
Research & Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics
2003 – 2006
CEDLAS, UNLP
Researcher & Teaching Assistant · La Plata, Argentina

Blogs & Media

World Bank LAC Blog
The jobs challenge: why better work means better lives in Latin America
Jan 2026
World Bank Data Blog
Beyond the numbers: Key trends reshaping Latin American jobs
Jun 2025
World Bank Data Blog
Poverty in Latin America: 10 facts you need to know for 2024
Nov 2024
World Bank Data Blog
Nine key facts about poverty and inequality in Latin America
Jul 2024
Brookings
Are robots in Michigan destroying jobs in Chihuahua?
Feb 2019
Brookings
Is Informality Bad for Business?
Oct 2019
ILO · Future of Work Podcast
The impact of Generative AI in Latin America
Jan 2025
Brookings
Why do elderly people oppose immigration when they're most likely to benefit?
Jul 2015
Brookings
Inequality among firms drives wage inequality in Europe
Mar 2017
World Bank Jobs Blog
Blame COVID-19? But blame informality too (or maybe more)
Dec 2020
World Bank Jobs Blog
Who can really work from home?
May 2020
World Bank Jobs Blog
While routines are comforting, they can also be job killers
Mar 2019
World Economic Forum
How will ageing populations affect politics?
Jun 2015
Slate
You Don't Have to Move to Scandinavia
Jul 2014
World Bank Blog
Does Lower Inequality Lead to Less Crime?
Aug 2014
Diario Gestión
Crisis por coronavirus aumentó desigualdades en el Perú
Sep 2020
Economic Research Forum
Who can work from home in MENA?
Jun 2020
World Bank Jobs Blog
The effects of minimum wages on jobs: Lessons from Seattle
Aug 2017
International Business Times
Why Are Americans Moving Less? Will It Hurt The US Job Market?
Jun 2013
World Bank ICT Blog
Who Shares in the European Sharing Economy?
May 2017
Recognition

Fellowships & Awards

Best Innovative Policy Database Award (Green Jobs Database)
World Bank LAC Chief Economist Office · 2024
Award of the Vice President of Poverty Reduction and Equity
World Bank · 2014
UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate Research Fellowship
UCLA · 2009–2011
Department Fellowship
UCLA Department of Economics · 2006–2011
"Elías Salama Award" — Best Paper on Monetary and International Economics
Universidad Nacional de La Plata · 2005
CONICET Scholarship for Master's Thesis
Argentina · 2005–2006
First Prize, Best Paper using ISCA Surveys
World Bank · 2004
Department Fellowship
UNLP Department of Economics · 2002–2004